I was looking at the PopPool scores this morning and realized how it is going to be anyone's game to win next week. Points are critical in the last week because you have three places to gain points.
Game 1:
You have two slots that get decided, so depending on how well you guessed for the David's from the get go could mean that you get as many as 6.7 weighted points or as little as 1.1 (though I don't think anyone guess that poorly in game 1). There are some people at the top of the current rankings that can only earn a maximum of 5.5 point which could give an edge to someone like Jim Becker if he guesses correctly.
Game 2:
This is do or die next week for the contenders. Guessing correctly for the final two positions means 8.3 points and guessing wrong means 0!!! I can almost guarantee that picking wrong here will cause any of the current leaders to drop out of the top 3 positions altogether. There is a hedge strategy that can be used here, but I don't think anyone has enough of a lead to make this a worthwhile strategy unless by some chance everyone else guessed wrong. That strategy would be to pick the same person for both week 1 and week 2 so that you were guaranteed to get at least 4.166 points. I suppose if you really didn't know who was going to win, you might consider this approach. I seriously doubt you could win the whole thing this way though.
Game 3:
This will make the difference as well as a correct guess here is worth 10 points. I don't think you can win without getting Game 3 correctly either.
So, in summary the maximum total point gain next week for guessing everything correctly (which is very plausible given there are only two contestants left to choose from) will earn you somewhere between 24 and 25 weighted points for most. Guessing wrong is going to earn you only about 5.5 to 6 points for most people which creates a point spread of about 18 points. Technically, anyone in the top 50 positions could win if everyone else got it wrong and though that is not going to happen, it does show that anyone within the top 6 or 7 positions has a good shot at it. Lets put it this way, the first three people in rank order that guess correctly for games 2 and 3 will most likely be the winners.
Good Luck!
Brad
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My brain hurts after reading this post!
ReplyDeleteI KNOW, Cat. I had to ff through the post. Lol.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, did you see the priceless look on Simon's face after Fantasia's "song," "Bore me (yawn?) It was pure WTF with a little GTFO...... crazy funny stuff. Loved it.